Is moderate drinking safe? A 2026 study estimates 14 drinks a week carries about a 1 in 25 lifetime risk of an alcohol-caused death, for men and women.
Two drinks a day sounds moderate. A large 2026 study puts the lifetime risk of dying from an alcohol-caused condition at that level at about 1 in 25.
The study, published in the Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, was led by Sinead George at the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH) in Toronto, with Kevin Shield as senior author. It grew out of a US federal review meant to inform an update to the US Dietary Guidelines, and it drew fresh attention this weekend.
This is general information, not medical advice.
The headline number
The researchers estimated each person's lifetime risk of an alcohol-attributable death, based on how much they drink in an average week over their life. At 14 drinks a week, which is two a day and the old upper limit for men in the US Dietary Guidelines:
- 39 in 1,000 men (about 1 in 25, or 4%) would die of an alcohol-caused condition.
- 41 in 1,000 women would, too. The paper says total risk was similar for men and women up to about 14 drinks a week.
At 21 drinks a week (three a day), it rises to about 69 in 1,000 men and 82 in 1,000 women.
No health bonus for light drinking
The old idea that a little alcohol protects your health did not hold up. In the authors' words, "At low levels of consumption, no protective net effect of alcohol consumption on health was observed." Small protective associations at up to three drinks a week were not statistically significant.
Risk also starts rising earlier than many people think:
- Above about 7 drinks a week (6.5 for men, 7.0 for women), lifetime risk passed 1 in 1,000.
- Above 8.5 drinks a week, it passed 1 in 100 for both men and women.
Even one drink a day was linked to higher risks of death from liver cirrhosis, oral and esophageal cancers, and injuries, the authors write. Above one drink on a single occasion, risks of breast cancer, cardiovascular disease and injury kept climbing.
What the authors recommend
The study concludes that US guidance should be tightened, for both men and women, "to no more than 1 drink per day."
Canada's guidance already goes further. Canada's Guidance on Alcohol and Health (2023), from the Canadian Centre on Substance Use and Addiction, says that at 2 standard drinks or less per week you are likely to avoid alcohol-related consequences. At 3 to 6 a week, the risk of several cancers rises, and at 7 or more, the risk of heart disease or stroke rises significantly.
What the study can and can't tell you
- It is a model, not a trial. The team combined US national health surveys, alcohol sales data, death records and published risk studies. Survey answers were adjusted up because surveys capture only part of the alcohol that is sold.
- It is about populations, not you. The authors say the estimates "are not individual risk estimates." Smoking, diet, genetics, hepatitis and drinking patterns all change a person's risk.
- It uses US numbers. A US standard drink is 13.6 grams of alcohol, and the death and disease data are from the United States.
- Confidence ranges are wide. For men at 14 drinks a week the range is about 10 to 70 in 1,000, so 1 in 25 is the central estimate.
Sources
- Sinead George, Kevin Shield and colleagues, "Alcohol Intake and Health Study: No Protective Effect at Low Levels, With Mortality Increasing to 1 in 25 at 14 Drinks Per Week," Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, 2026 (doi 10.15288/jsad.25-00435). Free to read on UCL Discovery.
- Canadian Centre on Substance Use and Addiction, Canada's Guidance on Alcohol and Health (2023).
If you or someone you know wants help with drinking, a family doctor or HealthLink BC is a good place to start.
